The Sino-US trade war has a huge impact on the textile industry

Recently, the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up and has become the main force impacting the market. On April 3, the United States announced a list of US$50 billion taxable goods, imposing an additional 25% tariff on some Chinese goods. On April 4, in order to counter the United States, the State Department decided to impose a 25% tariff on some products originating in the United States, including uncarded U.S. cotton and cotton linters. Trump subsequently announced that he would continue to add 100 billion US dollars to the list of taxable goods. The Sino-US trade war intensified. What impact will it have on the cotton market? The impact of the Sino-US trade war on cotton upstream (1) Short-term negative effects on US cotton, but limited impact, long-term prices depend on fundamentals 1. The tariff on US cotton exports to China within the quota has been changed from 1% to 26%, and the duty-paid price has increased from about 14,200 yuan /Ton becomes about 17,700 yuan/ton, which means an increase of about 3,500 yuan/ton in cost.　　2. This will make U.S. cotton lose its competitiveness in the Chinese market. In the short term, it will clearly be negative for U.S. cotton exports, which in turn will be negative for U.S. cotton prices. On April 4, ICE cotton fell by 3.05%.　　3. As of March 22, China has signed a net contract of approximately 553,000 tons of U.S. cotton for 2017/18, accounting for 16.2% of the total U.S. cotton exports. Since the proportion of U.S. cotton exports to the Chinese market is not particularly large, after the short-term negative impact, U.S. cotton will expand into other sales markets, and U.S. cotton prices will return to fundamentals, and the probability of stabilization and rebound is relatively high. U.S. cotton prices quickly rebounded by 4% from April 5-6, which preliminarily confirmed this transmission logic. (2) The short-term benefit of Zheng cotton, but the price boost is limited. 1. The increase of tariffs will increase the import cost of US cotton by about 3,500 yuan/ton, which will make US cotton lose its competitiveness in the country. China will increase Australian cotton, Indian cotton, The purchase of Brazilian cotton has led to an increase in the basis of cotton in these producing areas, and the cost of domestic cotton will increase, which will increase the price of cotton in the short term.　　 2. In the long run, the increase in tariffs will bring limited benefits to domestic cotton prices. It is estimated that in 2018, China's annual cotton import volume will be about 1.15 million tons, the reserve supply will be about 2.3 million tons, and the self-produced will be about 5.75 million tons. Estimated according to the limit value of 550,000 tons of US cotton imports, it accounts for about 6% of the total supply. The increase of 3,500 yuan/ton will boost the overall cotton price by about 210 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.4%. And because of the substitution of other imported cotton, the increase in the cost of domestic cotton used by US cotton taxation is less than the above limit estimate.　　　　The impact of the Sino-US trade war on cotton downstream 　　The entire upstream cotton import volume is about 1.11 million tons per year, and the total trade volume is about 16 billion yuan; of which, the US cotton volume is about 550,000 tons, and the total trade volume is about 7.8 billion yuan. However, the downstream exports of textiles and clothing to the United States alone amount to about 300 billion yuan, which is much larger than the upstream. If the trade war continues to escalate and expand to the textile and apparel sector, a 25% tariff will seriously affect exports to the United States. Competitors such as Southeast Asia may fill the market vacated by my country. It will be more difficult to regain the market after a long replacement period. This is a potential big negative for my country's cotton consumption, and its impact on prices can only be qualitative but cannot be quantified.　　 Of course, the above is only a rational logical deduction. The trade war itself is uncertain, and the impact of market sentiment is expected to be severe. In the short term, market prices may fluctuate irrationally. Investors are advised to take precautions against risks.