The epidemic continues to escalate, and the crude oil market is turbulent

1) According to FX168's weekly crude oil survey, 20% of analysts are bullish and 80% bearish regarding the trend of oil prices this week. Crude oil strategist Julian Lee wrote an analysis and said that the next trend of oil prices may be down. The performance of the weak US dollar this week has reversed the performance of commodity prices, superimposed on the implementation of the EU recovery fund; at the same time, OPEC+ is about to relax the production cut restrictions, and crude oil production in North America is also showing signs of rebounding. Oil workers have begun to resume work, new oil wells have been put into production, and they have been idle during the epidemic. Drilling has also begun to recover. These factors have kept crude oil prices in the upper and lower 40s to consolidate their strength. On the other hand, there are also problems with the demand for crude oil. According to overseas media reports, from the recent statements of Fed officials, Fed officials will discuss how to provide more stimulus to the economy at the Federal Reserve resolution next week. These plans may be in September or this fall. It will be announced at a later meeting, but until they learn more about the impact of the epidemic on the U.S. economy, they can accept to maintain the current policy unchanged; five days’ countdown, 31.8 million people’s unemployment benefits will be zero, but the U.S. two parties There is no conclusion yet, whether it will be postponed or stopped; the landing of Hurricane Hannah on the 25th local time will further complicate the epidemic prevention situation in Texas; the recovery of ground transportation across countries and states is uneven, and the recovery of the aviation industry has also stalled. All of these indicate that the next move in oil prices may fall rather than rise. This week's attention: Monday 09:30 China's June profit of industrial enterprises above designated size; 09:30 China's June annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size; the second day of the week at 04:30 US API crude oil inventory changes in the week as of July 24; Wednesday at 22:30 as of July 24, the week EIA crude oil inventories changes; at 02:00 the next day the Fed announces interest rate resolution (no dot matrix); at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference; week 4: 20:30 US initial jobless claims as of July 25; 20:30 US continued jobless claims as of July 18; Friday at 09:00 China's July official manufacturing PMI. 2) Recently, the sales of polyester fabrics in the traditional market of China Textile City have declined, the sales of summer imitation silk fabrics made of polyester filaments as the main raw material have fallen, and the sales of summer thinner fabrics have dropped sharply. Recently, the overall market volume of polyester imitation silk fabrics has declined compared with the previous period, and the transaction prices have been steadily and down. The sales in autumn fashion fabrics and jacket casual fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material showed a slight growth trend, and the prices were basically stable. Due to the decline in the sales of summer thin fabrics, the overall market sales of autumn fabrics are still relatively limited, resulting in insufficient sales in the overall market. 3) According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 29th week of 2020 (7.20-7.24), there are 5 commodities in the textile sector that have increased month-on-month. The top 3 commodities are lint (1.15%) and PTA ( 0.69%), polyester FDY (0.57%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that dropped from the previous month. The top 3 products were viscose staple fiber (-1.68%), cotton yarn 21S (-1.67%), and cotton yarn 32S (-1.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was -0.23%. The textile index on July 26 was 685 points, the same as yesterday. The PTA commodity index was 34.76, the same as yesterday; the polyester staple fiber commodity index on July 26 was 52.52, the same as yesterday; the spandex commodity index on July 26 was 70.68, the same as yesterday; the cotton yarn 21S commodity index on July 26 was 82.78 , The same as yesterday.